The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has drawn up eight possible post-General Election scenarios, including the likelihood of conducting three Presidential elections in five months.
In a strategy document , the electoral agency says one scenario is the possibility of a Presidential runoff followed by a successful petition at the Supreme Court.
The IEBC considers this the worst-case scenario, as it would see the political temperature hit melting point.
Dubbed “The Road to Armageddon”, the strategy paper covers operations from the period prior to the August 8, 2017, polls until the end of the maximum period it takes for the eventual winner of the contest to be declared – December 11, 2017.
“The political environment will be charged, especially during the petition hearing. The Supreme Court will be tested again,” the IEBC wrote in the confidential document.
According to the Armageddon timelines, the first Presidential results are expected to be declared by August 15, 2017. If there is no automatic winner, a rerun will be held by September 7, 2017.
The results of the rerun are expected by September 14, 2017, with the possibility that the results could again be challenged in court as was done by opposition chief Raila Odinga in the first round in 2013.
A petition would then be filed by September 21, and the Supreme Court expected to make its verdict within 14 days.
If the Presidential petition succeeds, fresh elections will be held by December 4, 2017, and the eventual winner unveiled by December 11.
“There will be confusion in the political space in terms of who will run the fresh election,” the document says, assuming the current IEBC commissioners are not forced out of office.
The term of the current nine commissioners led by Issack Hassan ends in November 2017, but some have expressed their willingness to voluntarily hang up their boots before then.
However, some Jubilee Coalition lawmakers have insisted only commissioners found culpable of any wrongdoing should be kicked out.
A second scenario, which IEBC has termed “The Last Battle”, will see the Supreme Court handle the Presidential petition twice.
This would be possible if the highest court in the land nullifies the first Presidential results – triggering a second vote. However, even after the second vote, a fresh petition could be filed at the Supreme Court challenging the new outcome.
“A petition upon a petition would completely leave the IEBC with zero credibility! Any positive legacy would be forgotten,” the document states.