So, barring some catch-up legs over the next month (and that’s not remotely out of the question), we’re looking at an identical multiplier to
Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($202 million/$91m) and Spider-Man 3 ($336m/$151m).
That will lead to a domestic total almost identical to the $262m cume of The Amazing Spider-Man (from a $137m Tues-Sun debut) back in 2012. And adjusted for inflation, it will be noticeably fewer tickets sold than that 2012 reboot.
And if the second-weekend figure holds up, the 61.3% drop will be the worst ever for a Marvel Cinematic Universe title.
Now, to be fair, the $117 million opening weekend was among the MCU’s biggest outside of the May summer kick-off blow-outs, second to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 among MCU films that didn’t open in early May.
And we’re still looking at a film that may end up the summer’s third-biggest domestic grosser, give or take Despicable Me 3. And it cost a lot less than the $235-$255m budgets of the last two Amazing Spider-Man movies, and it was well-liked enough that a sequel should at least hold down the fort comparatively.
Heck, if it plays less like a Spidey movie and more like a more frontloaded MCU movie (think Captain America 1 or Iron Man 2), it may get closer to $285m than $265m.